EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at The Coffer DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Seiryuu

57.3%

25.0% share · 6 matches

1st

Fire Crux Lorraine

63.3%

12.5% share · 3 matches

3rd

Wind Lorraine

53.3%

12.5% share · 3 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Lorraine	1	12.5%	3	100.0%	66.8%	63.3%	60.5%	1163	—
2	Wind Seiryuu	2	25.0%	6	66.7%	65.1%	57.3%	59.9%	1152	—
3	Wind Lorraine	1	12.5%	3	66.7%	59.8%	53.3%	55.4%	1199	↑ top
4	Water Tera Silvie	1	12.5%	3	33.3%	47.0%	44.0%	46.1%	1096	↓ low
5	Wind Razorgale	2	25.0%	6	33.3%	35.3%	43.3%	40.8%	1209	↑ top
6	Water Genbu	1	12.5%	3	0.0%	25.9%	40.0%	38.4%	1139	↓ low