← DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #6
Water AlliesTier 1
at DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #6
decks
2
(18.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-0-2
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
55.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1348
· median 1348
· range 1343–1353
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1206
Q3 1362
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 18.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
