← Grand Archive TCG - Standard @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - Standard @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Water Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Mantle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infinite Scintillation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Find the Lost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proto Key Crest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Reality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Absorption | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Possessed Reaping | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Obelith Escort | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seep Into the Mind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Labyrinth, Jeweled Opus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rainwoven Crysalis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vorpal Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shattered Hope | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shardwing Searchlight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dormouse Informant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |