Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Lokalne Granie
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 21.4% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.0% | -0.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Wind Chess | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Neos | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash Grenade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fortifying Manashot | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corsair Captain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trivariate Dream | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poised Occlusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Starbirth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cataleptic Constellation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |