← Curio Store Championship PTM Season
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Curio Store Championship PTM Season
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-0-2
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.3%
avg ELO +4.6 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1345
· median 1345
· range 1345–1345
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1086
Q1 1168
Q3 1343
1471
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 18.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
