EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DeckaDice PTM Store Champs!.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 87.5% | 58.8% | 57.5% | 53.5% | 1502 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 83.3% | 62.6% | 56.7% | 55.9% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 54.2% | 55.0% | 51.7% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 61.8% | 55.0% | 54.7% | 1314 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 62.5% | 51.9% | 52.5% | 50.7% | 1295 | — |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.6% | 50.0% | 52.3% | 1246 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | 1252 | — |
| 8 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.6% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 47.7% | 46.7% | 48.9% | 1102 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 7.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.6% | 45.0% | 47.0% | 1178 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 7.7% | 2 | 0.0% | 36.7% | 40.0% | 42.0% | 1079 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Neos | 1 | 7.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 39.2% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 1080 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 7.7% | 2 | 0.0% | 30.1% | 40.0% | 38.0% | 1410 | ↑ top |