← Phantom's Monarch Set Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom's Monarch Set Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 100.0% | 69.5% | 60.0% | 58.5% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 65.9% | 56.7% | 57.8% | 1248 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 13.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 51.4% | 55.6% | 51.6% | 1327 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 53.2% | 55.0% | 51.3% | 1357 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Allies | 2 | 13.3% | 7 | 64.3% | 54.4% | 54.7% | 53.2% | 1296 | — |
| 6 | Wind Cats | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 57.9% | 50.0% | 53.3% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 37.5% | 43.6% | 47.3% | 47.2% | 1259 | — |
| 8 | Fire Oblation | 2 | 13.3% | 7 | 42.9% | 43.9% | 45.8% | 46.2% | 1284 | — |
| 9 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 32.0% | 44.0% | 42.6% | 1484 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.5% | 43.3% | 45.9% | 1237 | — |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 41.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | 1083 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Chess | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 42.1% | 35.6% | 44.4% | 1051 | ↓ low |