EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Fire Crux Lorraine
55.0%
↑ top
1st
Fire Crux Mage
60.0%
↑ top
3rd
Fire Luxem Assassin
50.0%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 100.0% | 69.2% | 60.0% | 59.5% | 1281 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 53.8% | 55.0% | 53.7% | 1280 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 44.8% | 50.0% | 47.9% | 1327 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 60.5% | 50.0% | 52.1% | 1215 | — |
| 5 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 42.8% | 46.7% | 46.7% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 44.3% | 46.7% | 47.4% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 35.3% | 40.0% | 43.4% | 1106 | ↓ low |