Water Crux AssassinTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-2-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1216
· median 1216
· range 1216–1216
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1207
Q3 1340
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Umbra Alice | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
