← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 12/18/2025
Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 12/18/2025
decks
2
(6.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.1%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1458
· median 1458
· range 1388–1528
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1225
Q3 1432
1560
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.7 |
| Water Zander | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Alice decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
