EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Kado PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 11.1% | 6 | 91.7% | 60.6% | 61.7% | 54.7% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 22.2% | 7 | 64.3% | 65.6% | 56.5% | 58.8% | 1264 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 54.2% | 50.0% | 51.4% | 1136 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Allies | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 42.0% | 47.3% | 46.3% | 1165 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 39.5% | 46.7% | 43.4% | 1253 | — |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 22.2% | 6 | 33.3% | 44.8% | 45.0% | 46.2% | 1129 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Tera Silvie | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 31.9% | 40.0% | 40.8% | 1111 | ↓ low |