EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 16.7% | 6 | 83.3% | 62.9% | 58.0% | 55.3% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 61.2% | 55.0% | 54.5% | 1271 | — |
| 3 | Fire Suited | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 62.8% | 55.0% | 55.6% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 66.7% | 59.3% | 54.3% | 53.8% | 1229 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Exia | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 60.4% | 53.3% | 52.9% | 1314 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 50.0% | 50.7% | 1266 | — |
| 7 | Slimes | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 48.1% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.9% | 50.0% | 51.1% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 25.0% | 36.4% | 44.3% | 45.4% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 35.0% | 44.0% | 45.4% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Exia | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 35.0% | 44.0% | 45.4% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.6% | 44.0% | 43.8% | 1276 | — |