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EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarchs Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Neos 1 8.3% 4 37.5% 46.1% 53.1% 53.4% 1213 ↓ low
2 Horse and Taxes 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 61.8% 52.9% 54.5% 1323
3 Wind Shadowstrike 1 8.3% 4 75.0% 57.1% 52.9% 49.9% 1301
4 Fire Crux Mage 5 41.7% 16 56.2% 53.0% 52.2% 51.4% 1291
5 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 8.3% 4 50.0% 55.8% 50.0% 52.9% 1204 ↓ low
6 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 8.3% 4 37.5% 45.7% 48.3% 49.0% 1176 ↓ low
7 Wind Chess 1 8.3% 4 25.0% 44.0% 42.4% 47.7% 1236
8 Fire Oblation 1 8.3% 4 25.0% 32.0% 38.1% 35.2% 1449 ↑ top