Water FractalTier 1
at 店冠
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.1%
avg ELO -4.6 per match
expected value
51.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1568
· median 1568
· range 1568–1568
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1166
Q3 1441
1694
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 25.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.0% | -8.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
