EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 66.5% | 55.0% | 56.6% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 2 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 45.1% | 55.0% | 48.0% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 65.2% | 55.0% | 56.1% | 1265 | — |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 55.5% | 52.5% | 52.2% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Exia | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 55.5% | 52.5% | 52.2% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.2% | 52.0% | 50.8% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | 1288 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.7% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Neos | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.2% | 48.0% | 50.1% | 1228 | — |
| 10 | Slimes | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.0% | 44.0% | 44.6% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Diana | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 0.0% | 29.3% | 40.0% | 42.6% | 1103 | ↓ low |