Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at Lokalne Granie
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 14.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Wind Neos | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reverse Affliction | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Whimsy's Warden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sablier Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Feu Awakening | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conflagrative Trounce | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Leporine Masque | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Shieldmaiden | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Folded Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brash Defender | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lacuna's Grasp | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Shield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |