EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CMD Store Championahip.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 8.3% | 6 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 56.7% | 56.9% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 51.4% | 50.4% | 1219 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 16.7% | 7 | 57.1% | 39.1% | 51.1% | 44.9% | 1475 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 25.0% | 13 | 50.0% | 50.8% | 50.7% | 51.4% | 1277 | — |
| 5 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 57.4% | 50.0% | 53.6% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 52.5% | 49.2% | 54.0% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 36.3% | 48.9% | 42.3% | 1558 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 25.0% | 44.7% | 44.8% | 48.7% | 1211 | ↓ low |