EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly PTM #3. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Oblation

60.0%

11.1% share · 1 matches

11.1% share · 3 matches

11.1% share · 3 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Allies	1	11.1%	3	100.0%	52.5%	60.0%	51.2%	1196	↓ low
2	Fire Oblation	1	11.1%	1	100.0%	50.9%	60.0%	50.9%	1222	↓ low
3	Horse and Taxes	1	11.1%	3	66.7%	50.0%	53.3%	50.0%	1313	↑ top
4	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	11.1%	3	66.7%	50.5%	53.3%	50.2%	1353	↑ top
5	Fire Exia	1	11.1%	3	33.3%	49.4%	46.7%	49.7%	1235	↓ low
6	Fire Kongming	1	11.1%	3	33.3%	49.4%	46.7%	49.7%	1367	↑ top
7	Wind Razorgale	1	11.1%	3	33.3%	48.9%	46.7%	49.5%	1313	↑ top
8	Fire Suited	1	11.1%	2	0.0%	48.9%	40.0%	49.4%	1302	↑ top
9	Wind Astra Cleric	1	11.1%	1	0.0%	49.5%	40.0%	49.5%	1131	↓ low