Water FractalTier 1
at PTM Store Champhionship
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-1-0
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.4%
avg ELO +10.9 per match
expected value
58.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1387
· median 1387
· range 1387–1387
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1225
Q1 1328
Q3 1390
1437
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
