← Many Realms Hub Store Championships
Water FractalTier 1
at Many Realms Hub Store Championships
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
4-1-1
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.0%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1535
· median 1535
· range 1535–1535
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1086
Q1 1149
Q3 1444
1535
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 18.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -4.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
