← Many Realms Arena Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Many Realms Arena Store Championship
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.8%
avg ELO -3.8 per match
expected value
39.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1360
· median 1360
· range 1185–1535
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1172
Q3 1415
1535
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 33.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.3% | -16.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.6 |
| Fire Exia | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
