Fire ArcaneTier 2
at PTM Store Champs
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.4%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
49.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1356
· median 1356
· range 1106–1607
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1106
Q1 1220
Q3 1339
1607
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Fire Suited | 11.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.0% | +5.8 |
| Water Fractal | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
