EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Monxter Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 3.4% | 7 | 85.7% | 72.8% | 60.5% | 61.5% | 1403 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 6.9% | 13 | 69.2% | 63.9% | 58.2% | 58.5% | 1300 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 10.3% | 15 | 66.7% | 42.7% | 56.0% | 49.5% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 3.4% | 7 | 71.4% | 69.0% | 55.6% | 58.0% | 1203 | — |
| 5 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 6.9% | 11 | 54.5% | 45.0% | 54.9% | 51.1% | 1351 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.4% | 6 | 58.3% | 70.3% | 51.9% | 59.1% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Fractal | 2 | 6.9% | 10 | 45.0% | 45.1% | 50.1% | 50.6% | 1231 | — |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 60.0% | 61.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | 1222 | — |
| 9 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 48.0% | 48.3% | 1291 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Wind Astra Cleric | 4 | 13.8% | 19 | 47.4% | 48.8% | 47.7% | 49.3% | 1228 | — |
| 11 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.4% | 4 | 25.0% | 36.1% | 47.1% | 46.7% | 1138 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 30.0% | 46.1% | 45.0% | 47.7% | 1139 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Aetherwing | 3 | 10.3% | 13 | 34.6% | 42.8% | 44.6% | 47.1% | 1200 | — |
| 14 | Fire Neos | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 30.0% | 46.7% | 44.4% | 47.0% | 1075 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Genbu | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 50.1% | 44.3% | 48.8% | 1208 | — |
| 16 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.4% | 5 | 20.0% | 39.0% | 42.2% | 45.5% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.4% | 2 | 0.0% | 33.2% | 40.0% | 39.9% | 1168 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Crux Assassin | 2 | 6.9% | 5 | 20.0% | 32.5% | 39.4% | 39.0% | 1181 | ↓ low |