Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at SR Store Champs
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.4%
avg ELO -3.6 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1311–1311
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1127
Q1 1239
Q3 1399
1451
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Astra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Wind Chess | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
