← Phoenix Inn PTM Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phoenix Inn PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 91.7% | 64.2% | 59.3% | 55.2% | 1490 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 6.2% | 6 | 66.7% | 50.2% | 52.9% | 49.4% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 3 | 18.8% | 13 | 57.7% | 58.2% | 52.2% | 52.8% | 1323 | — |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.1% | 51.7% | 51.7% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 50.8% | 51.7% | 52.2% | 1250 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 1281 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 48.2% | 50.0% | 47.9% | 1352 | — |
| 8 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 50.8% | 48.3% | 48.0% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Neos | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 52.6% | 48.3% | 50.4% | 1147 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 44.6% | 47.5% | 47.8% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 57.1% | 46.7% | 49.7% | 1276 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Allies | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 36.0% | 45.0% | 43.9% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 12.5% | 35.2% | 42.5% | 44.1% | 1343 | — |
| 14 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 34.1% | 40.0% | 42.2% | 1119 | ↓ low |