Water FractalTier 2
at CMB- GA Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 18.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.4% | -6.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.9% | -18.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.9% | -18.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 26.5% | -22.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |