EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Lokalne Granie.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 100.0% | 50.5% | 60.0% | 50.2% | 1430 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 62.5% | 52.5% | 52.5% | 51.0% | 1371 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 62.5% | 51.6% | 52.5% | 50.7% | 1218 | — |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.9% | 52.0% | 50.3% | 1173 | — |
| 5 | Wind Diana | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 60.0% | 50.5% | 52.0% | 50.2% | 1227 | — |
| 6 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1096 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Neos | 1 | 12.5% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.6% | 48.0% | 49.5% | 1060 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 46.7% | 40.0% | 48.7% | 1157 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Slice & Dice | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 0.0% | 46.7% | 40.0% | 48.7% | 1157 | ↓ low |