← Cardpoint Store Championship
Water FractalTier 1
at Cardpoint Store Championship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
2-1-0
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.5%
avg ELO +9.3 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1294
· median 1294
· range 1294–1294
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1264
Q1 1290
Q3 1342
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Fire Suited | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
