Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Sparks Store Championship
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.4%
avg ELO +4.1 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1385
· median 1385
· range 1385–1385
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1271
Q1 1395
Q3 1491
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 30.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Water Fractal | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
