EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 58.8% | 60.0% | 53.5% | 1542 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 80.0% | 59.2% | 56.0% | 53.3% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 11.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 47.2% | 54.0% | 49.0% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.3% | 50.0% | 50.5% | 1219 | — |
| 5 | Wind Chess | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.7% | 50.0% | 52.3% | 1093 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Allies | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 37.5% | 45.7% | 47.5% | 48.3% | 1408 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.0% | 46.7% | 50.0% | 1186 | — |
| 8 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 48.4% | 43.3% | 49.3% | 957 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Tera Tamer | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 48.4% | 43.3% | 49.3% | 957 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 31.7% | 40.0% | 41.5% | 1070 | ↓ low |