EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 45.2% | 55.0% | 49.3% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 51.5% | 54.2% | 50.6% | 1298 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 60.7% | 53.3% | 56.3% | 1180 | — |
| 4 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 54.1% | 50.0% | 51.9% | 1137 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 50.0% | 55.1% | 47.5% | 51.0% | 1149 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Slimes | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 44.5% | 46.7% | 47.4% | 1160 | — |
| 7 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 0.0% | 38.2% | 35.6% | 42.4% | 1047 | ↓ low |