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EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Labyrinth Games PTM Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Fractal 1 5.3% 7 85.7% 73.7% 61.5% 62.0% 1276
2 Water Genbu 3 15.8% 16 68.8% 53.2% 56.7% 52.6% 1376 ↑ top
3 Wind Shadowstrike 1 5.3% 5 60.0% 46.6% 53.3% 50.4% 1504 ↑ top
4 Water Aetherwing 2 10.5% 10 60.0% 55.3% 52.8% 52.3% 1304
5 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 10.5% 10 65.0% 54.9% 52.4% 51.1% 1325 ↑ top
6 Fire Crux Mage 1 5.3% 6 58.3% 59.9% 48.1% 51.5% 1222 ↓ low
7 Wind Arcane 1 5.3% 5 40.0% 48.2% 48.0% 50.0% 1175 ↓ low
8 Wind Seiryuu 1 5.3% 5 40.0% 50.6% 47.5% 50.3% 1128 ↓ low
9 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 5.3% 5 40.0% 55.5% 47.1% 52.8% 1243 ↓ low
10 Wind Umbra Ranger 1 5.3% 4 50.0% 46.2% 45.7% 45.5% 1334 ↑ top
11 Fire Crux Lorraine 2 10.5% 7 28.6% 44.9% 43.3% 46.8% 1231 ↓ low
12 Water Crux Assassin 1 5.3% 4 0.0% 31.4% 40.0% 43.4% 1216 ↓ low
13 Fire Suited 2 10.5% 8 0.0% 21.9% 35.8% 38.1% 1210 ↓ low