← GA Middle East Weekly PTM #6

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly PTM #6. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Astra Ranger 1 12.5% 3 100.0% 51.9% 60.0% 50.9% 1357 ↑ top
2 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 50.8% 53.3% 50.4% 1276
3 Water Tera Tamer 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 51.0% 53.3% 50.5% 1219 ↓ low
4 Wind Shadowstrike 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 49.0% 53.3% 49.5% 1490 ↑ top
5 Wind Seiryuu 1 12.5% 2 50.0% 50.6% 50.0% 50.4% 1333 ↑ top
6 Water Fractal 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 49.4% 46.7% 49.7% 1222 ↓ low
7 Fire Exia 1 12.5% 3 0.0% 48.0% 40.0% 49.1% 1235
8 Water Wind Vanitas 1 12.5% 2 0.0% 49.2% 40.0% 49.5% 1093 ↓ low