← Wild Magic Store - Store Championship - Phantom Monarch
Water GenbuTier 1
at Wild Magic Store - Store Championship - Phantom Monarch
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-3-1
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.5%
avg ELO +4.7 per match
expected value
56.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1338
· median 1338
· range 1311–1365
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1086
Q1 1140
Q3 1345
1532
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 14.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Suited | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
