EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 01/23 Online Event Leagues.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 100.0% | 52.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | 1393 | — |
| 2 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 49.4% | 56.7% | 49.8% | 1379 | — |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.1% | 56.7% | 50.3% | 1324 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.3% | 55.0% | 50.1% | 1284 | — |
| 5 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 50.5% | 53.3% | 50.3% | 1364 | — |
| 6 | Water Aetherwing | 3 | 30.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.3% | 46.7% | 49.6% | 1520 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 945 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Chess | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | 945 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 48.8% | 35.0% | 49.3% | 1284 | — |