Fire AggroTier 1
at Store Championship PTM
decks
2
(9.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-5-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.7%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1209
· median 1209
· range 1155–1263
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1134
Q1 1197
Q3 1295
1444
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Genbu | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
