← GA Middle East Weekly PTM #9

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Middle East Weekly PTM #9. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Arcane 1 12.5% 3 100.0% 52.3% 60.0% 51.1% 1302
2 Water Aetherwing 1 12.5% 3 83.3% 51.5% 56.7% 50.7% 1197 ↓ low
3 Fire Umbra Diana 1 12.5% 3 66.7% 50.5% 53.3% 50.2% 1425 ↑ top
4 Wind Slice & Dice 1 12.5% 3 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 1276
5 Fire Crux Mage 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 48.9% 46.7% 49.5% 1313
6 Wind Astra Cleric 1 12.5% 3 33.3% 49.3% 46.7% 49.7% 1346 ↑ top
7 Fire Neos 1 12.5% 2 0.0% 48.7% 40.0% 49.2% 1207 ↓ low
8 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 12.5% 2 0.0% 48.4% 40.0% 49.0% 1196 ↓ low