← Grand Archive TCG - Standard @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Water FractalTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG - Standard @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-2-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
46.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1133
· median 1133
· range 1133–1133
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1085
Q1 1133
Q3 1226
1289
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exia | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +3.0 |
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Neos | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Overlord | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
