EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 1/31卡卡貓店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Wind Wakeup Combo
56.7%
↑ top
1st
Fire Crux Lorraine
58.6%
↑ top
3rd
Water Aetherwing
54.7%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 18.2% | 7 | 78.6% | 59.2% | 58.6% | 54.6% | 1443 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 9.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 60.2% | 56.7% | 54.2% | 1502 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 55.8% | 54.7% | 54.9% | 1491 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.3% | 48.0% | 47.1% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 2 | 18.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 47.6% | 45.3% | 47.3% | 1428 | — |
| 6 | Fire Suited | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 45.6% | 44.0% | 47.6% | 1338 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.2% | 42.2% | 46.6% | 1261 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 36.3% | 40.0% | 44.2% | 1284 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 9.1% | 1 | 0.0% | 37.4% | 40.0% | 37.4% | 1407 | — |