← Titan Games Store Championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Titan Games Store Championship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-0-1
overall winrate
90.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
77.0%
avg ELO +15.6 per match
expected value
58.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1212
· median 1212
· range 1212–1212
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1147
Q1 1163
Q3 1255
1292
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Fire Exia | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
