← Collectors Guild PTM Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Collectors Guild PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1341
· median 1341
· range 1255–1427
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1120
Q1 1200
Q3 1427
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.3% | -2.0 |
| Fire Suited | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Water Allies | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
