← Store Championship (March 8th)
Water Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Store Championship (March 8th)
decks
2
(15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.2%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1386
· median 1386
· range 1385–1388
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1001
Q1 1226
Q3 1388
1507
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -13.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Nico | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
