← [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 2/26/2026
Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at [TCG] Grand Archive Online League NA Weekly 2/26/2026
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-0-2
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.6%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1170
· median 1170
· range 1170–1170
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1029
Q1 1171
Q3 1416
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 13.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
