← Phantom Monarch Store Championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarch Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 6.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 51.9% | 55.0% | 52.1% | 1338 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Byakko | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 57.0% | 54.3% | 52.2% | 1253 | — |
| 3 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 75.0% | 57.0% | 54.3% | 52.2% | 1253 | — |
| 4 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 6.7% | 5 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 53.8% | 54.9% | 1274 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 13.3% | 11 | 59.1% | 55.6% | 52.8% | 52.5% | 1318 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 13.3% | 7 | 57.1% | 55.3% | 51.4% | 51.2% | 1244 | — |
| 7 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 50.0% | 51.3% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 13.3% | 7 | 42.9% | 52.1% | 48.3% | 51.3% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 13.3% | 8 | 37.5% | 35.8% | 46.5% | 44.9% | 1311 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.1% | 43.3% | 47.1% | 1101 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 6.7% | 3 | 16.7% | 37.7% | 41.1% | 43.0% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Fractal | 1 | 6.7% | 4 | 0.0% | 30.4% | 40.0% | 41.9% | 1169 | ↓ low |