← Phantom Monarch Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Phantom Monarch Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 6.7% 6 66.7% 51.9% 55.0% 52.1% 1338 ↑ top
2 Fire Byakko 1 6.7% 4 75.0% 57.0% 54.3% 52.2% 1253
3 Fire Crux Mage 1 6.7% 4 75.0% 57.0% 54.3% 52.2% 1253
4 Wind Arcane 1 6.7% 5 70.0% 64.3% 53.8% 54.9% 1274 ↑ top
5 Wind Seiryuu 2 13.3% 11 59.1% 55.6% 52.8% 52.5% 1318 ↑ top
6 Fire Aggro 2 13.3% 7 57.1% 55.3% 51.4% 51.2% 1244
7 Water Aetherwing 1 6.7% 3 50.0% 51.7% 50.0% 51.3% 1193 ↓ low
8 Fire Aetherwing 2 13.3% 7 42.9% 52.1% 48.3% 51.3% 1176 ↓ low
9 Fire Luxem Assassin 2 13.3% 8 37.5% 35.8% 46.5% 44.9% 1311 ↑ top
10 Fire Oblation 1 6.7% 4 25.0% 47.1% 43.3% 47.1% 1101 ↓ low
11 Water Astra Ranger 1 6.7% 3 16.7% 37.7% 41.1% 43.0% 1162 ↓ low
12 Water Fractal 1 6.7% 4 0.0% 30.4% 40.0% 41.9% 1169 ↓ low