Water AetherwingTier 2
at GA #53 Store Championship
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.9%
avg ELO -7.0 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1197
· median 1197
· range 1197–1197
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1163
Q1 1213
Q3 1315
1353
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 18.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Slice & Dice | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Alice | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
