Water FractalTier 1
at Game Nut Store Champ
decks
1
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.4%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1322
· median 1322
· range 1322–1322
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1116
Q1 1162
Q3 1315
1396
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 30.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
