EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at XP Games GA Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 9.1% | 7 | 71.4% | 54.1% | 55.0% | 52.8% | 1275 | — |
| 2 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 44.4% | 53.3% | 48.3% | 1509 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 18.2% | 9 | 61.1% | 44.8% | 52.9% | 48.5% | 1297 | — |
| 4 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.6% | 52.0% | 50.6% | 1265 | — |
| 5 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 9.1% | 7 | 57.1% | 60.4% | 49.5% | 52.4% | 1240 | — |
| 6 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 48.0% | 49.2% | 1342 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 9.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 49.0% | 45.6% | 48.5% | 1154 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 51.2% | 45.0% | 52.0% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Fractal | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 47.4% | 45.0% | 50.5% | 1121 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 43.9% | 40.0% | 47.2% | 1038 | ↓ low |