EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Pikku Play Store championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Lorraine

53.5%

18.2% share · 7 matches

1st

Wind Luxem Assassin

59.2%

9.1% share · 4 matches

3rd

Wind Astra Cleric

49.3%

18.2% share · 6 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Luxem Assassin	1	9.1%	4	87.5%	61.9%	59.2%	56.0%	1388	—
2	Fire Crux Lorraine	2	18.2%	7	64.3%	62.6%	53.5%	55.2%	1338	—
3	Wind Astra Cleric	2	18.2%	6	41.7%	42.4%	49.3%	47.3%	1324	—
4	Water Luxem Assassin	1	9.1%	4	50.0%	51.1%	47.5%	48.8%	1405	↑ top
5	Water Fractal	3	27.3%	8	43.8%	49.2%	47.5%	48.8%	1359	—
6	Wind Shadowstrike	1	9.1%	3	33.3%	35.5%	46.0%	41.1%	1356	—
7	Fire Aetherwing	1	9.1%	4	25.0%	43.1%	45.0%	47.6%	1319	—