Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Lokalne granie
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1272
· median 1272
· range 1173–1371
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1144
Q3 1258
1430
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 20.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +3.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Diana | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
