← King Fandom PTM store championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at King Fandom PTM store championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Seiryuu 1 6.7% 4 87.5% 54.0% 58.0% 51.7% 1528 ↑ top
2 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 6.7% 4 75.0% 59.8% 56.0% 55.4% 1423 ↑ top
3 Fire Suzaku 1 6.7% 4 75.0% 64.3% 55.0% 55.7% 1305
4 Wind Razorgale 1 6.7% 3 66.7% 42.4% 53.3% 46.5% 1638 ↑ top
5 Wind Astra Cleric 2 13.3% 6 58.3% 53.2% 51.7% 51.1% 1391 ↑ top
6 Water Astra Diana 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 56.8% 50.0% 52.1% 1231 ↓ low
7 Water Fractal 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 55.3% 50.0% 52.1% 1211 ↓ low
8 Water Ravishing Mill 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 47.4% 48.0% 47.1% 1310
9 Wind Shadowstrike 1 6.7% 4 50.0% 47.0% 48.0% 47.8% 1325
10 Fire Crux Mage 1 6.7% 3 33.3% 45.0% 46.7% 47.7% 1139 ↓ low
11 Water Tera Mage 1 6.7% 3 33.3% 50.3% 45.0% 49.5% 1184 ↓ low
12 Water Aetherwing 1 6.7% 3 16.7% 37.5% 43.3% 44.1% 1156 ↓ low
13 Water Tera Cleric 1 6.7% 3 16.7% 43.5% 43.3% 47.0% 1130 ↓ low
14 Fire Arcane 1 6.7% 3 0.0% 37.1% 40.0% 44.0% 1075 ↓ low